• 1 Post
  • 75 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

help-circle













  • It’s also incredibly significant for future missile attack that all their radars turned on and all those intercept assets are revealed and clocked and analyzed. Assuming a video going around portrays what it claims, Hezbollah even zeroed in and missiled an Iron Dome launcher site during the attack.

    Counterbattery in general is fucking hard. If the proxy can pull that shit off, you had better expect the state actor to take even greater advantage.


  • Although it would explain why Israel is suddenly arranging to get dozens of jets from the US in the last month or so.

    Forgive what feels like a nitpick, but we should take a moment for wider historical scorn. WaPo at the end of March:

    Last week, the State Department authorized the transfer of 25 F-35A fighter jets and engines worth roughly $2.5 billion, U.S. officials said. The case was approved by Congress in 2008, so the department was not required to provide a new notification to lawmakers.

    Biden owns the fuckup, but it comes after all the shit Israel put the administrations of Dubya, Obama, and Individual 1 through, and after all the atrocities upon the Great March of Return and the other surges of conflict. The planes could fill another allies’ order, the MIC could get their warbucks, and Joey could have kicked the can down the road, but here we are.



  • Depends on the subforum, naturally, but the whole place is unquestionably a big waxy cheese wheel of old internet. The paywall, the heavy moderation, regulars who’ve been posting brainy takes in megathreads for years… it still all works like a charm.

    Find someone who knows their shit on a topic you care about and hit the ¿ to see their posts and jump in to great moments of earlier discussion. Encounter them again being smart about some other awesome thing. Skip pages of fast threads except for posters you want to see. No upvotes, ya use yer words. That’s a tasty slice of a rare flavor.

    Forums are detox for algorithm sickness. Still one of the finest tenbux you can spend.


  • I broadly agree with you, but I’d welcome a discussion of a blind spot in almost everything I’ve seen. I haven’t read much specialty defense analysis recently, so if anyone has some I’d be fascinated to read it.

    The wider press seems to ignore the strategic significance of Iran gathering all that detection, location, and performance data of all the AA, ABM, air superiority, and radar assets that popped off a billion dollars’ worth of interception. Can someone explain to me how this does not place Israel’s nuts in a vise?

    Yes, a lot of that intel is fleeting as systems are moved and whatnot, but if they’re on the ball there is a whole lot of data selling and prankery that can be done all the same. Israel has tiny strategic depth and is limited in how elusive they can be around their tightly packed valuable targets, and Hezbollah has shown they know how to take advantage of probing Israeli defenses.

    If the Likudniks escalate and draw a more committed Iranian and proxy barrage, that could get pants-shittingly serious. What am I, or what are we, not seeing?


  • Somewhat contradictory of the massed artillery and APC plan in the first sentence is this fever dream further down the page:

    …Amos Harel, a military and defence analyst and writer for Israeli daily Haaretz.

    “Biden has been telling Bibi that he can’t invade Rafah, so it may be that we see a smaller incursion over a limited time period in which Israel hits the Hamas battalions hard and then withdraws”…

    Where did they dig up this dinosaur? There are plenty of delusional fools in the Israeli war apparatus but this Napoleonic battalion crack he’s smoking is incredible. Israel’s SOF raiders have been getting absolutely rinsed by the locals since minute one of October 7th, and adding massed artillery or a reaction force in APC’s won’t turn that tide against hit and run guerrillas with short firing exposures and tunnel systems.

    The use of “APC’s” without specifying the Namer is also a bad omen. If they try to roll around Rafah in M113s it’s gonna be a big sticky mess of laffy taffy