Well, we now know for a fact that Abrego Garcia is still alive.

And it’s not about him lying. Of course a piece of shit like Bukele is more than willing to lie to anyone. The point is that he is benefitting politically from this arrangement and if he doesn’t uphold his end he can suffer political harm. It’s not just a promise, it’s a two-way deal.

Looks like I was right. He’s still alive.

I’m talking about what the headline of the article here says.

The leaders are only leaders because the unincarcerated members of the gangs listen to them and do what they say. They only do that because they believe the gang leaders have power and influence. Part of that, now, is protection for gang members who get locked up. How long do you think those leaders are going to remain leaders when everyone knows they made a deal with Bukele that Bukele isn’t living up to? Not long.

No, I think that proving one guy in CECOT has died brings into question the treatment of everyone else in CECOT, including gang members the leaders of the gang do care about.

The US government, like all governments, is comprised of individual people with varying motivations. The person asking for his return is not part of the executive branch, which is what’s paying to keep people in CECOT.

A sitting Senator who is a member of the minority opposition party is asking for him to be returned. The US administration is paying the Salvadoran government to keep him there. The VP of El Salvador told Senator Van Hollen that if the US embassy asked for him to be released they would release him.

I didn’t make the agreement. It’s been widely reported on.

The US treasury said that an investigation into government officials and gang leaders revealed the secret negotiations. Luna [chief of the Salvadoran penal system and vice-minister of justice and public security] and Marroquin [chairman of the Social Fabric Reconstruction Unit] allegedly “led, facilitated and organized a number of secret meetings involving incarcerated gang leaders, in which known gang members were allowed to enter the prison facilities and meet with senior gang leadership”.

In addition to financial benefits for the gang members, incarcerated leaders received special treatment in the prisons, including access to mobile phones and sex workers. It said Luna also negotiated support from MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs for Bukele’s national quarantine during the Covid-19 pandemic.

It sounds like the gang leaders who negotiated with Bukele’s regime are incarcerated themselves. And it’s not just prisoners in CECOT who are getting better conditions. It’s incarcerated gang members all over the country.

It’s not unlikely that they are just murdering the inmates

I do think that’s rather unlikely. After Bukele came into power promising a massive reduction in violent crime he met with the leaders of all the major gangs in El Salvador. He asked them tor reduce violent crime in exchange for payoffs and a promise of improved conditions for prisoners. Within 2 years of that agreement violent crime in El Salvador reached the lowest point it’s been in 30 years. If it comes out that prisoners in CECOT are dying, that agreement disappears and violent crime skyrockets. That would completely undermine Bukele’s basis of support.

Americans are absolutely calling the shots here. That’s why El Salvador has him and is keeping him: because the US government is paying them to do so.

I think he is still alive. Bukele made agreements with the leaders of all the major gangs in El Salvador to get them to reduce violent crime. In exchange he gave some money and concessions as to how prisoners would be treated. If it comes out that prisoners are dying in CECOT, the gangs are going to treat that as Bukele breaking their agreement and violent crime will shoot up.

Even if he’s still alive, though, there’s a 0% chance he, or anyone else Trump sends there, will ever come out of CECOT while Bukele or Trump is still in power. It would completely undermine so much about their regimes at this point. They are using CECOT as the ever present existential threat against opposition. It’s supposed to be a black hole people go into and never leave. They can’t let anyone out ever or it proves that people can get out. They don’t want anyone to believe that is possible. They can’t let anyone believe that is possible or it’ll breed massive opposition in both countries.

There’d be motherfuckers on TikTok snorting lines of asbestos