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Cake day: March 5th, 2024

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  • While I agree with the broad strokes of what you’re saying, we do have enough intelligence penetration into the Russian military to predict an invasion even their own soldiers did not know about. We could potentially find out where their listening stations are. One would have to be very nearby.

    Also, we have multiple subs. Revealing one temporarily does not compromise our deterrence. Nor is this move without any value, I think it’s important that we occasionally sabre-rattle back at them. It seems to be a language they understand.

    All that said, I doubt nuclear WW3 is around the corner with MAD still being the case. I doubt non-nuclear WW3 is around the corner unless China joins Russia in a military alliance. What I do think is within the next few years is chipping away at the Russian economy and morale of the populace until they sue for peace in Ukraine.



  • Certainly, a journalist could be an asset or informant or whatever you’d want to call it, for an intelligence service. He’s putting himself and his professional reputation at risk though. If the intelligence service wanted x piece of information about whatever, there are simply easier ways to get it. Bribe a Russian.

    You don’t need to ask the American guy that everyone already knows about and is probably being watched to go look at it for you.

    I also haven’t heard of any journalists being arrested for espionage in the west.











  • People like saying Israel can’t genocide Gazans on their own. They need the US help, just because they say that and they’re getting it. Are you sure they’re not just lying about really needing it, and couldn’t use other, lower-tech methods like starvation or napalm to do it if they were forced to? Or even trebuchets if they really, really felt like it?

    It’s a very tiring line. I understand wanting to pressure the US to halt military assistance, but do not think that would magically save Gaza. Biden has to deal with the harsh reality that it would not, because this isn’t a movie, or a peer-peer war where 1000lb bombs are actually genuinely necessary.

    The IDF would take more casualties without 1000lb bombs 155mm artillery shells, definitely. But that’s it. They are human beings capable of adaptation and problem-solving, and could solve the problem of how to accomplish a goal without enough explosives.

    Now, to fight Hezbollah on the other hand, that’s a pretty big army. Probably do need the big bombs for that.




  • I agree, I think they’ve been remarkably responsible about avoiding lasting damage. What upsets me is how they’re fueling the far-right rage machine with more propaganda ammunition at a time when we are already fighting a fierce and undecided battle to live in a world that isn’t run by exclusionary ideological nationalistic idiots.

    It’s like they cannot understand that some people don’t want the world saved, and agree with Hitler when he wrote about the tears of war being the bread of future generations. A sentiment that basically says suffering=good. So, more suffering=better. Will climate change cause suffering? Well, guess what then.


  • Here in the US we have one of the two main political factions regularly threatening terrorism, execution and even war.

    When people are already arguing to take you out behind the chemical shed and shoot you, it’s a little out of touch to think they give two shits about your future health in a changing climate. Or our planet, they probably think they can get to Mars with Elon or something, or god will rapture them, or whatever they think, I don’t know.

    You think people should care about future generations? They probably should, but we have parents that don’t give two shits about their own kids, much less anyone else’s.