I know a lot of people love him. 30% of the country are his forever and that’s that. But those people aren’t enough to win on their own. He won because Republicans lined up to block Hilary.
In fact, Hilary is the best example of what I think will go wrong for Trump. Hilary was a very strong candidate. But maybe 5% of Democrats just didn’t care to turn out for her: a mix of not liking her, being too progressive for her, maybe being sexist, and just presuming she would win.
That little bit of slack did her in.
Will Trump experience that “little bit of slack” in 2024 compared to 2016? I think he will. In 2016 he was a wild phenomenon, an outsider, a rock that lots of otherwise reasonable people decided it was time to throw at the system.
He doesn’t have all that mystique this time. He’s not a disruptive new challenger from out of left field. He’s last year’s loser and a confirmed criminal. He will turn out his 30% base just fine. But is he going to get as many black and latino votes again? Are “fiscal conservatives” going to trust him again? Have 5% of Republican voters been turned off by all the Trumpism? Because our electrons are razor-close. That tiny bit of difference in turnout is everything.
I know a lot of people love him. 30% of the country are his forever and that’s that. But those people aren’t enough to win on their own. He won because Republicans lined up to block Hilary.
In fact, Hilary is the best example of what I think will go wrong for Trump. Hilary was a very strong candidate. But maybe 5% of Democrats just didn’t care to turn out for her: a mix of not liking her, being too progressive for her, maybe being sexist, and just presuming she would win.
That little bit of slack did her in.
Will Trump experience that “little bit of slack” in 2024 compared to 2016? I think he will. In 2016 he was a wild phenomenon, an outsider, a rock that lots of otherwise reasonable people decided it was time to throw at the system.
He doesn’t have all that mystique this time. He’s not a disruptive new challenger from out of left field. He’s last year’s loser and a confirmed criminal. He will turn out his 30% base just fine. But is he going to get as many black and latino votes again? Are “fiscal conservatives” going to trust him again? Have 5% of Republican voters been turned off by all the Trumpism? Because our electrons are razor-close. That tiny bit of difference in turnout is everything.
Brother, Hillary was a fucking failure.
Trump will have no slack. Those of us who don’t care are against him now. Carrot over Trump.