Article from a few weeks ago, but now that G. Elliott Morris is taking over without Nate’s models, I’m curious what lemmy’s think about political polling analysis from FiveThirtyEight?

  • primordial_chowder@beehaw.org
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    1 year ago

    Based on the article, it looks like this change would make that a lot worse, since the main point of contention between Silver and the new guy seems to be that the new guy’s models are a lot more certain of the results too early. So candidates are going to look like the sure thing far more now most likely.

      • KerPop47@lemmy.world
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        1 year ago

        That’s not really accurate. The polls were going back and forth for over a month leading up to the election, and the FBI announce they were re-opening the case into Clinton’s emails 3 days before voting day. The polls just didn’t have the time to reflect that change.

      • brognak@lemm.ee
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        1 year ago

        Was it 538, or just the utter idiocy of the average American? Just because the polls say he has a 33% chance of winning, doesn’t mean stay home, it means the opposite.

        Thems worse odds than Russian roulette.