Fifteen months ago, Vladimir Putin’s army was on the outskirts of Kyiv. Now the Russian leader is struggling to maintain control in Moscow. The rebellion of Wagner forces, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is the final confirmation of how catastrophically wrong the war in Ukraine has gone for Putin. Even if the Russian leader prevails in the immediate battle against Wagner, it is hard to believe that Putin can ultimately survive this kind of humiliation. His prestige, his power, even his life, are now on the line.
The historic irony is that Putin’s own actions have brought about the thing he fears most: an insurrection that threatens both the Russian state and his own personal power. Putin’s fear of a “colour revolution” in Russia dates back almost 20 years. Fittingly, its origins lie in Ukraine. The Orange revolution of 2004 — a popular, democratic uprising against a rigged election in Ukraine — sparked a paranoia in the Russian president that has steadily intensified over the years.
Ever since, Putin has been haunted by two linked fears. First, that Ukraine would slip irrevocably from Russia’s grasp. Second, that a successful pro-democracy uprising in Kyiv would be a dry run for the same thing in Moscow.
His decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 was an effort to finally snuff out both dangers — by installing a pro-Russian, authoritarian government in Kyiv.
As a former intelligence operative and conspiracy theorist, Putin was convinced that the origins of any “colour revolution” — whether in Ukraine or Russia — would lie in Washington. His refusal to believe that Ukrainians might have agency or power led to his fatal underestimation of the strength of the country’s resistance to a Russian invasion.
As well as underestimating Ukrainian strength, Putin — drunk on the mythology of the Red Army of the 1940s — fatally overestimated Russia’s own military power. The failure of the Russian army opened the door for the Wagner group to enter the war. This gave Prigozhin his own power base and propaganda platform and ultimately allowed him to turn on the Russian state.
Putin’s pitch to the Russian people has always been that he rescued the country from the anarchy of the 1990s. But what is happening now is reminiscent of the failed military and hardliner coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991, when Boris Yeltsin mounted a tank outside parliament. At that point, the people of Moscow played a vital role in the unfolding events. The reaction of the Russian population to the Prigozhin uprising will be a crucial — and, as yet, unknown — part of this story.
In his own first remarks on the Prigozhin uprising, Putin looked back to an even darker precedent: the alleged “stab in the back” that ended the Russian war effort in 1917 and pitched the country into revolution and civil war. These words were meant to convey firmness of purpose. But they were hardly reassuring.
The Wagner insurrection will give hope to opponents of the Putin regime — both inside and outside Russia. For the Ukrainian military, whose counter-offensive has failed to break through, this looks like a historic opportunity. If Russia’s forces turn on each other, or are pulled back from the frontline to defend Putin, they could fold in eastern Ukraine.
Political prisoners in Russia, such as Alexei Navalny or Vladimir Kara-Murza, must also have a new sense of hope and opportunity. They, too, may play a part over the coming months. Prigozhin, of course, is no liberal. His rhetoric is stridently nationalist and imperialist. The Wagner forces have a well-earned reputation for brutality. But Prigozhin — like Putin — has now unleashed forces that he will struggle to control.
This is a British news paper. The UK has made a point to be as blindly aggressive towards Russia as possible. I think this is to compensate for Brexit and catering to Russian oligarchs for years…
I much prefer German, Dutch and French newspapers, they are much more nuanced on the situation of Russia and Ukraine.
Putin is not in the best position, but he is not in the worse position either:
- Russia is really good at defending and attrition-based war, like they did Chechnya and Georgia. They now dug their trenches, and just have to protect, this is why the counter offensive is stalling.
- Prigozhin is a useful idiot. He is here to show “how bad it could be.” Putin uses Prigozhin to show himself as man of restrain, as opposed to Prigozhin who looks and sounds like a lunatic. If Progozhin was really an issue, Putin would have taken him out months ago.
- The sanctions against Russia are weakening, the BRICS are all buying from Russia without restrain, helping to fund Putin’s war. The BRICS are either on Russia’s side or indifferent to the war.
Of course, this is far from a success across the board. I think Russia never expected Finland membership’s of NATO, this came as a blow for Putin and Russia. If Sweden candidacy is, hopefully, ratified, it’s check-mate for Russia in the Baltic. I also think Russia never expected Western Europe to do that well without Russian gas. Germany is now the second biggest supplier of weapons to Ukraine. This is really a blow to Russia.
Anyway, my point is that Putin is far from being done, unfortunately.
Also I avoid British and American media on the Russo-Ukrainian War, it’s becoming borderline propaganda with no nuance. We need to be realistic, and really understand the situation to vote for the politicians pushing for the right decisions.
This is a British news paper. The UK has made a point to be as blindly aggressive towards Russia as possible. I think this is to compensate for Brexit and catering to Russian oligarchs for years…
Pretty sure the only blind aggressor in this situation is Russia, and I’m also confident that the UK and their international partners’ training of Ukrainian troops starting pre brexit in 2015 has helped them not be wiped out by Putin’s murderous invasion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Interflex
I much prefer German, Dutch and French newspapers, they are much more nuanced on the situation of Russia and Ukraine.
Yeah, maybe if the Germans hadn’t ignored everyone’s advice against Nordstream after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, we wouldn’t be in this situation.
And the Ukrainians are more than a bit pissed off at the French continued supply of weapons upgrades to Russia in the period as well.
The Dutch have the same issue with Russian money as the UK does. Problem for Russia is that those funds have been seized now and will be used to repair all the material damage that Russia has done with its indiscriminate shelling.
The counter offensive isn’t stalling, they haven’t put a fraction of the hardware into the battle yet. This is the reconnaissance by fire period.
I’m not sure what any of these points have to do with my original point, but let me answer a few of them, which I think are lacking context.
Yeah, maybe if the Germans hadn’t ignored everyone’s advice against Nordstream after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, we wouldn’t be in this situation.
Who’s advice? It was mostly the US and the baltic countries. The US because they would prefer to sell their LNG to Europe at a markup. Their advice was not without interest.
Also gas supply are 25 years contracts, Germany (at the time) could not get out of Nordstream 1 without paying heavy penalties. Getting out of Nordstream would have most likely created a EU-wide recession, which could have lead to a wave of right-wing populism, most likely fed by Russia.
This was a very difficult situation. The “germans should have gotten out of nordstream” is a very simplistic argument lacking context.
And the Ukrainians are more than a bit pissed off at the French continued supply of weapons upgrades to Russia in the period as well.
Which weapons? The Mistral-class ship sale was canceled and France paid heavy fees, and sold them at heavy discount to Egypt.
The Dutch have the same issue with Russian money as the UK does. Problem for Russia is that those funds have been seized now and will be used to repair all the material damage that Russia has done with its indiscriminate shelling.
The scale at which the oligarchs corrupted London is much bigger than what it was for the entirety of the Netherlands. Also, the Dutch didn’t vote for Brexit which, in the case of Brexit, was heavily russian-influenced.
The counter offensive isn’t stalling, they haven’t put a fraction of the hardware into the battle yet.
They won’t even put half of their hardware into battle, that would be suicide. They need reserves. The Ukrainians will have to cross mine-fields in front of trenches, with almost no air support. If they put even half of their hardware and men into a counter offensive today, they will just be leading their material and men to the junk-yard. This is especially true given how well Russians dug their positions. And Russia still have its aviation in reserve, underutilized, as opposed to Ukraine which has been stretching its air-power thin.
Your original point was the UK media isn’t to be trusted because the UK is blindly aggressive towards Russia
That’s logically flawed to put it mildly. Russia annexed Crimea and conducted two chemical weapons attacks in the UK. Reason enough to be on the front foot against Putin
Do you read your own links? Literally the first line is
Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum is a debated subject and remains unproven
Russia funds far right groups throughout Europe, UK is not special
These are the weapons that were supplied even though there was an EU embargo on weapons sales to Russia
France, top exporter of arms to Russia As reported by Disclose, France has sold €152 million worth of military equipment to Russia. A figure confirmed by Investigate Europe’s analysis, and places France far ahead of its neighbours, exporting 44% of European arms to Russia.
Our investigation found that since 2015 France has given its authorisation to export military equipment belonging to the category “bombs, rockets, torpedoes, missiles, explosive charges”, weapons directly lethal but also “imaging equipment, aircraft with their components and ‘lighter-than-air vehicles’”.
According to Disclose, French exports also include “thermal imaging cameras for more than 1,000 Russian tanks, as well as navigation systems and infrared detectors for fighter jets and combat helicopters. The Kremlin bought these from Safran and Thales, whose main shareholder is the French state. This equipment can now be found on-board the land vehicles, fighters and helicopters operating on the Ukrainian front.
https://www.investigate-europe.eu/en/2022/eu-states-exported-weapons-to-russia/
And of course the US wants to sell LNG, that doesn’t make it a good idea to claim there’s no problems with Russia. They literally said there’s no risk less than 4 months prior to Russia’s invasion
The German government on Thursday declassified a top-secret security assessment on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from 2021, only four months before the outbreak of war, which claimed energy supplies “won’t be jeopardized” by increased dependency on Russian gas.
The document, dated October 26, 2021, was adopted in the final days of former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s outgoing government, in which Germany’s current leader Olaf Scholz played a key role as vice chancellor.
The controversial opinion displays an exceedingly naive view of the risks posed by Germany’s significant reliance on Russian gas deliveries, which had continuously grown in the years prior to Moscow’s war. It also rejects concerns by Eastern European partners like Poland and Ukraine, which had long warned the Nord Stream 2 undersea pipeline designed to carry natural gas directly from Russia to northern Germany would increase the risk of energy blackmail by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Do you read your own links? Literally the first line is
Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum is a debated subject and remains unproven
Yes I do. You literally removed the next part of the sentence:
Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum is a debated subject and remains unproven, though multiple sources argue evidence exists demonstrating that the Russian government attempted to influence British public opinion in favour of leaving the European Union.
[…]
Data released by Twitter in 2018 identified 3,841 accounts of Russian origin affiliated with the Internet Research Agency, […] which collectively sent over 10 million Tweets in “an effort to spread disinformation and discord” […] with a “day-long blitz” on the day of the referendum
[…]
British Journalist Isabel Oakeshott stated in an article for the Times: "As part of my research I uncovered controversial information about links between Arron Banks and his associate Andy Wigmore and the Russian embassy in London. […] Arron Banks was the largest donor to the Brexit campaign. Prior to the donations, Southern Rock, Banks’ underwriting company was technically insolvent and needed to find £60m to meet regulations. It was saved by a £77m cash injection, […] from another company, ICS Risk Solutions. […] Around the same time, September 2015, Banks, along with Andy Wigmore, started having multiple meetings with Russian officials posted at the Russian embassy in Londonhttps://www.investigate-europe.eu/en/2022/eu-states-exported-weapons-to-russia/
Regarding the french weapons. I’m not an expert on the subject. It sounds like old deals which were paid at time of delivery. Cancelling these deals right at delivery, after the weapons were manufactured, would have meant telling private companies that they can’t recover costs for items already manufactured. These defense contractors would have sued the hell out of the state.
Also, this article focuses on EU countries at the time of the invasion. The UK was excluded, since it wasn’t part of the EU.
The UK was by far the biggest weapon exporter to Russia before the invasion of Ukraine
They literally said there’s no risk less than 4 months prior to Russia’s invasion
The German government on Thursday declassified a top-secret security assessment on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from 2021, only four months before the outbreak of war, which claimed energy supplies “won’t be jeopardized” by increased dependency on Russian gas.
Can we stop talking about Nord Stream 2? I don’t understand the fixation on Nord Stream 2. The thing was already controversial in Germany before it was even supposed to be turned on. There were pushbacks from the general population way before the invasion of Ukraine. And at the end it never got turned on! Who cares?
The controversial opinion displays an exceedingly naive view of the risks posed by Germany’s significant reliance on Russian gas deliveries, which had continuously grown in the years prior to Moscow’s war. It also rejects concerns by Eastern European partners like Poland and Ukraine, which had long warned the Nord Stream 2 undersea pipeline designed to carry natural gas directly from Russia to northern Germany would increase the risk of energy blackmail by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
First of all, Poland was also depending on Russian gas, so it was a little hypocrytical from them to call for Germany to stop the dependence.
Also, up to the begining to the war, Ukraine was still indirectly importing Russian gas, so it’s the pot calling the kettle black IMHO.
Energy is a very difficult topic. Where should have Germany got their supply? It’s easy to criticize with 20/20 hindsight. But given the context at the time, it was not the best decision ever, but it was as insane as people make it sound like today.
rigozhin is a useful idiot. He is here to show “how bad it could be.” Putin uses Prigozhin to show himself as man of restrain, as opposed to Prigozhin who looks and sounds like a lunatic. If Progozhin was really an issue, Putin would have taken him out months ago.
Maybe. Unless Putin tried, failed and this is now Prigozhin’s answer.
Russia is really good at defending and attrition-based war, like they did Chechnya and Georgia. They now dug their trenches, and just have to protect, this is why the counter offensive is stalling.
Generally yes. But this time it’s not another state vs Russia, it’s Russia vs Russia. It’s likely easier to trust another Russian “leader” than some foreigner. Especially since Prigozhin was often enough shown to be close to Putin. So I would assume he has a relatively good image to be considered trust worthy (enough), when he brings allegations.
How do the Russian people generally feel about the way the war in Ukraine is dragging on? They were told it would be quick, but now trenches are being dug to protect Moscow from mercinaries Putin hired (which in itself hardly seems restrained). How do ordinary Russians feel about that? It seems the hardest thing to know.
I agree with the main idea that Putin is yet to be done for but not sure about the individual points.
Russia is good at defending and attrition-based war, yes, but the blunt of their forces is in Ukraine, the inner territories of Russia is not well fortified because the nuclear threats should keep enemy armies at bay and it’s Russians marching, which makes it hard to sell a “neonazi marching to moscow” story to motivate soldiers.
I’m not sure how “useful” it is to have a 50 thousand man strong army marching towards your capital while you’re trying to spin a “everything going according to plan” story and Ukraine is making its counteroffensive.
Last I checked, China and India were purchasing oil from Russia but at a heavily discounted price, which does not bode well for Russia when it just lost entire Europe as a client.
As for English sources, you just need to choose well. Reuters and AP are respectable sources with no strong bias and the op-eds from sites like Cipher Brief have been very moderated in my opinion.
I’m not sure how “useful” it is to have a 50 thousand man strong army marching towards your capital while you’re trying to spin a “everything going according to plan” story
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the 2023 version of the 1941 Red Army Purge when Stalin growing tired of his army command executed most of his army leadership.
Of course all of these are just speculation.
As for English sources, you just need to choose well. Reuters and AP are respectable sources with no strong bias […]
Until recently Reuters used to use the Ukrainian’s government inflated numbers for Russian casualties. I think English sources reuse Ukraine’s information without fact-checking them way too much. At the end this is also an information war, and Ukraine has been twisting the reality a little bit in its communication (of course, much much less than Russia)
I don’t think Putin has shown the ability to pull such a maneuver so far outside propaganda and I don’t see a reason to see some ulterior play here either. Not when he has the means to do his purges in less riskier and embarrassing ways. Edit: Also Putin’s last speeches corners Wagner into a win or die situation, which might cause things to get dirty.
British newspapers have hated Russia long before Brexit.
This is an interesting take. Honestly, reddit was my sole source for information on the russia-ukraine war, so I know I’m biased and probably ignorant of all the facts.
Points 1 and 3, I’ll concede. I don’t know enough to argue. Lol.
2nd point, I noticed they are 25k-strong? I’m not familiar with Russia’s military but that sounds like a really small number to invade Moscow (unless the majority of the troops are committed elsewhere and only a few left to defend), or I’m overestimating Russian defensive capabilites. But I honestly don’t see how he shows how bad it could be since I don’t think he’ll be razing the city? Or I’m missing something? Maybe that’s why Putin let him be - because he knows he won’t win (in terms of numbers)?
Just trying to see things from another point of view.
2nd point, I noticed they are 25k-strong? I’m not familiar with Russia’s military but that sounds like a really small number to invade Moscow (unless the majority if the troops are committed elsewhere and only a few left to defend), or I’m overestimating Russian defensive capabilites. But I honestly don’t see how he shows how bad it could be since I don’t think he’ll be razing the city? Or I’m missing something? Maybe that’s why Putin let him be?
My prognostic (= I have no proof, only time will tell) is that this is a purge (like in 1941) with Prigozhin as the figure head. Prigozhin has been saying for a month that the regular Russian army was incompetent. Multiple German military experts have been saying that a purge was possible.
IMHO, this is a way for Putin to get rid of his army high command, which he has grown tired, and replace it with his best buddy Prigozhin, without any blame on Putin.
Again, only time will tell if I’m right. I could be totally off.
Putin declared Prigozhin a terrrorist, FSB issued an arrest warrant for him. Prigozhin marches on Moscow. Suddenly Putin negotiates with the guy he declared a terrorist, gives him everything he wants. This includes firing the head of the ministry of defense. And the FSB arrest warrant is rescinded, everyone is pardoned.
How is this a complex scheme to save face? This makes Putin look so incredibly weak. He has to fire the head of his military to appease someone he declared a terrorist yesterday.
My prognostic (= I have no proof, only time will tell) is that this is a purge (like in 1941) with Prigozhin as the figure head.
I understand. I’m not even guessing what’s going to happen since it has been quite unpredictable from the beginning. That’s actually logical, imo. With all the Russian failures, I can see Putin just wanting to get rid of the higher ranking officials but can’t just do it haphazardly (morale and politics). Thank you for the answer.
This is a very balanced view.
You’re a bit quick there. Not only has the Ukrainian counteroffensive not “failed to break through” (they broke through several frontlines), Putin is hardly in any danger (yet). What’s good about this incident is that Russia now has internal problems to worry about that help take off pressure from Ukraine.
Decent writeup. Thanks.
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